ARB Monitor

Closing

Every signed deal ranked by what's left to close — fewest approvals remaining first. Top return ✦ re-ranks by EAR — Expected Annualized Return, the risk-adjusted score: prob-weighted payoff minus downside if it breaks, annualized, so a tight spread closing soon beats a wide one that's far off or risky (slow/black-box timing is penalized). Low-risk = signed, ≤1 gate left, no black-box/litigation/second-request risk, with positive progress. Watch = near-close but a risky gate or fresh concern news. Ann. IRR = the spread annualized to the est. close (simple, act/365, not compounded).